System Analysis

The System Analysis and Foresight Brief Unit also provides unique insights using systems thinking-based analysis and system dynamics modelling of emerging issues. Online simulators and scenario generators enable policymakers to better understand structural issues and explore different policy interventions and their potential outcomes. These tools assist in understanding the long-term implications of policy decisions and in making informed decisions. 

Past projects include population dynamic modelling to further improve the understanding of the impact of the level of Proportion of Illegally Killed Elephants (PIKE) on elephant populations at the Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE) sites across Africa and climate related security risk modeling.

The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE) Programme is a site-based system designed to monitor trends in the illegal killing of elephants, as well as build management capacity and provide information to help range States make appropriate management and enforcement decisions.MIKE evaluates relative levels of illegal killing based on the Proportion of Illegally Killed Elephants (PIKE). PIKE is calculated as the number of illegally killed elephants found, divided by the total number of elephant carcasses encountered by patrols or other means, aggregated by year for each site. PIKE levels above 0.5 means that more elephant deaths reported were due to illegal killing than other types of death. In the demonstration projects, data-based modelling is used to provide insights into the structures that are generating these trends, and then through simulation modelling, possibly policy interventions would have desirable impacts. Simulation models also provide opportunities to experiment safely with scenario options and provide interactive learning environments as a means of communication and knowledge dissemination.
 

In previous Conference of the Parties reports, the CITES Secretariat indicated that PIKE levels above 0.5 are of concern and that it is a threshold above which elephant populations are very likely to be in net decline. To better understand under what conditions this may be the case, the Secretariat in collaboration with the MIKE-ETIS TAG and the UNEP Science Division initiated a population modelling study to explore this further. 

Findings

The population modelling study includes a variety of alternative scenarios where PIKE values take on other values than 0.5 and with natural mortality rate and fecundity rate realistically fluctuating over time. The findings demonstrated that the 0.5 PIKE 'threshold' should be used with caution and on its own is not an accurate predictor of elephant population trends, Estimates of fecundity and natural mortality rate are also needed to make more accurate assessments. 

Conclusion

What the investigation concluded, based on the validated system dynamics elephant population model for the Samburu elephant population, was that the simple PIKE measure focused on a ratio of deaths or outflows of a population cannot alone be a useful indicator of how an elephant population is changing without also knowing the births or inflows to the population. Therefore, the PIKE threshold of 0.5 should be used with caution. 

Possible scenario of elephant population changes versus PIKE